The Future of the Episcopal Church III

Several points stand out. Among these I would list:

• The decline of congregations.
• The dramatic decline of children in Church schools. Today, the average church school has 37 children.
• The increase in clergy fueled by the larger number of non-parish and retired clergy.
• The relative stability of the burial number. The back door remains consistent.
• The decline in adult baptisms, receptions and confirmations. The fact that we baptize less than one adult per congregation.

It is beyond any reasonable comprehension that our leaders can know these numbers and claim that ECUSA is doing well. I can only attribute this to either denial or political spin.

What Do the Numbers Mean?

What do I think these numbers actually mean for our Church’s future? Recently, a Bishop asked me exactly this question. As he reviewed the graphs and chart, he asked, “Kevin, have you ever considered how this information looks against what we know about an organization’s life-cycle?”

What he was intuitively trying to figure out is very important. For many years now, those who study organizations know that they often go through a predictable life-cycle. At the front end of this cycle is a time of new energy as new vision and mission gain adherents and the organization begins to grow. This is usually followed by a time of building the organization and extending its influence. This is an exciting time of energy and direction.

Finally, an organization stabilizes as it reaches the limits of its current energy and growth. This “stabilization” period can last a few years or a whole generation. Unfortunately, life does not go on happily ever after. Soon the organization’s success begins to block new initiatives. The leadership begins to age. Decline sets in.

If this decline is allowed to continue without redevelopment (Protestants would call this ‘reform’) the organization will inevitably decline and die. This does not mean that the organization is of no value during this more mature period, just that it will not start a new cycle of life.

Arlan Routhage used this information in a very helpful workbook on the congregation life-cycle. This material is still used by the national church congregational development office and is a key congregational development diagnostic tool.

Have I ever thought how ECUSA stands against this information?

Of course, and what I then told the bishop, I am now going to tell you.

If the organization’s leadership begins to take new initiatives during the stability phase and leads it onward, this is called “redirection.” Unfortunately, few organizations do this. I believe ECUSA tried during Bishop Allin’s tenure as Presiding Bishop.

The next (decline) stage brings the need for “redevelopment.” While the need for this becomes obvious, several forces work against it. One of those forces is the inevitable rise in the organization’s leaders ages. ECUSA’s average age today is 58! The general population’s age is mid 30s. The strange paradox at this point is that the ability of declining membership to continue to fund the organization (due to their more discretionary giving) keeps the crisis from forcing the leaders to face the needed changes.

Left too long, the organization’s decline is so deep, that the only future is rebirth or death. Most organizations die. Some experience a rebirth.

Where is ECUSA in this Cycle?

Here is my opinion. From 1985 to 2000, ECUSA struggled with this decline. Different groups struggled for control of the organization hoping to win their agenda. (This is often the characteristic of a long-declining organization.) Essentially all these subgroups believe that their sense of mission and direction – their agenda – is what the organization needs.

By 2000, two forces were growing in ECUSA. One of them was organizational in nature and the other was more social. The first we could call the “2020 Movement.” The second we could call the “inclusiveness Movement.” They were not necessarily mutual exclusive, but they did represent very different agendas.

Then in 2003, both of these came to the forefront of the church. The result is that the Episcopal Church has now passed from the redevelopment stage into the death stage.

What Progressives Believe

To the credit of our church’s progressives, this is exactly what they are now saying. They believe that out of this death, something new has been reborn.

• A more inclusive Church.
• This is very exciting and it takes the church to a new place.
• We have acclaimed a new level of inclusiveness and human freedom.
• Thousands will respond to this new direction.

The point I want to make is that the emphasis on “something new” by these leaders is their intuitive hope that this will bring the church into a new place.

Here is how Bishop Alexander of Atlanta said it in the April 8, 2004 edition of The Living Church:

Rather than being torn apart by last summer’s General Convention votes on sexuality, the Episcopal Church has been reborn, the Rt. Rev. J. Neil Alexander said in his sermon at the closing Eucharist. (Of the Via Media Groups gathering) “I have a sense in which the church we have known which taught us the gospel and the sacraments and which we grew up in, that Church is no longer part of us.’ He said, ‘In its place we are going through the labor pains of a new empowerment and ministry of the church.”

Of course, I do not agree with this conclusion. Not only do I believe that this rebirth of a true “Inclusive Church” will not happen, I also believe that the present controversy has taken almost all the initiative of the 2020 Movement out of the church collectively. Gone is any plan to plant 100 new congregations a year (let alone the resources and will to do this.) Gone is the sense of being “one church on mission.” We have, in fact, returned the church to its present rate of decline.

I do believe Progressives are right in this. Once the Robinson confirmation took place the people coming into the Episcopal Church (even when you are declining, new people arrive) will more likely hold the same social views.

Again, What Does this Mean?

If the progressives are right, as soon as they are able to quiet the controversy and actively promote this “new” position, the church will find new energy and new adherents. If they are wrong, this simply won’t happen.

If conservatives are right, we missed our opportunity to recapture (redevelop) our sense of mission at this time. Here is what I believe. ECUSA will now continue its long, slow slide to death. This will not happen over night, but short of a miracle, it will happen. This does not mean that I do not believe in miracles or rebirth, I’ve seen both. It is just not where we are now.

What could we do? We could stop the fight, affirm both sides and allow the competing groups to cooperate where we wish and build where we want. This of course would be a good “Anglican” compromise. It is not what is happening.

Failing efforts at redevelopment, ECUSA is now wandering down the long, slow pathway to death

A Personal Postscript to this Article

In these articles, I have painted what I believe is a realistic picture of ECUSA’s future based on long standing trends. I know many of you will find this discouraging, even depressing. I often do. You may want to ask if I see anything positive about the present situation. The answer is most definitely yes!

I frequently tell people that when I think about our national Church , I become easily depressed, but if I want to be optimistic, I think of particular congregations.

At the congregational level, many Episcopal Churches are discovering how to be a missionary church in a growingly secular society. They are recruiting new members and making new disciples of Jesus Christ. They are often both traditional and innovative. Traditional regarding our history and theology, innovative regarding approached to new people.

I have seen small, medium and large congregations experience extraordinary growth. I have seen all sorts of congregations provide new services to their community that help the needy and meet individual needs.

One thing these congregations hold in common is their willingness to learn from others --especially those outside the Episcopal Church. Like it or not, America is a free enterprise society. Episcopalians, Methodists, Presbyterians and other mainline congregations can learn from more missionary communities how to survive the present transformation of our society.

I do regret that the 2003 General Convention created hardships for many of our most innovative congregations, but there is no doubt that most of them will survive and flourish. In the long run, the greatest sadness for ECUSA in 2003 may be our tendency as Episcopalians to take ourselves far too seriously. I believe that the greatest failure of Episcopal leadership is the inability to understand two critical words. These are Post-modern and Post-denominational.

In 2003, we continued to act as though we were the established church whose decisions inform and affect the leaders of our society. This remains the underlying ethos that frames much of what the Episcopal Church is about at the beginning of the 21st century. Until a reborn, theological confident, and missionary Anglicanism is replanted in North America, many of our healthiest congregations may have to go it alone. Our healthy congregations will not want the dying institution of ECUSA to pull them down with it.