The most senior contenders for the position, Archbishop of Adelaide Dr
Ian George, and Archbishop of Melbourne Peter Watson, are set to retire
in the next few years.

The church's other senior bishop, Archbishop of Brisbane Dr Phillip
Aspinall, has only been in the job for two years, but could be a
compromise candidate.

In a strange twist, Dr Jensen is almost certainly guaranteed support
from two wings of the church - the "low church" evangelicals and the
"high church" Anglo-Catholics.

The two wings have come together on a number of issues in past years,
most notably opposition to the ordination of women clergy and the
leadership of homosexuals in the church.

In essence, the evangelicals see women clergy as being contrary to the
Bible and the Anglo-Catholics see them as not in keeping with the long-
standing, God-inspired traditions of the church.

Both have also been critical of liberal elements in the church accepting
homosexual clergy and gay marriage.

The Primatial Election Board comprises all 23 diocesan bishops, as well
as 12 clergy and 12 lay people elected by the General Synod to be held
later this year.

At the last election in 2000, Dr Carnley won narrowly from former
Archbishop of Sydney Harry Goodhew.

Then Archbishop of Brisbane Peter Hollingworth was eliminated on the
third of four ballots, and Dr Carnley defeated Archbishop Goodhew by 24
votes to 17 in the final ballot.

Archbishop Goodhew had received the most votes of all candidates in the
first two ballots, but it was believed his imminent retirement
influenced voters in the end.

With a number of key changes to the bishops' frontbench in the past two
years, the vote is likely to have shifted away from the moderate rump of
the church.

Handing leadership of the Australian Anglican Church to Dr Jensen, who
was elected Archbishop of Sydney in June 2001, could have far-reaching
consequences.

A profile posted on his website quotes him as saying: "Our fundamental
aim should be to address the secular challenge by providing flourishing
Bible-based, gospel-centred, people-nurturing churches in as many places
as possible".

Moves to incorporate women into leadership, including women bishops,
embrace changes in secular society and extend a friendlier welcome to
homosexuals - all issues championed by Dr Carnley - are likely to flag.

But, given recent national church life statistics, which show strong
growth in the so-called "happy-clappy" churches which feature strongly
in Sydney, Dr Jensen could in fact lead the church to renewal.

As national leader, he could also be influential in the world-wide
Anglican Communion, which is struggling to remain united in the face of
difficult issues.

In the lead-up to the 2005 primatial elections, the church will need to
consider what sort of future it wants and what sort of leadership it
needs to thrive in that future.

©AAP 2003