The Dean of EDS tells us that the actions of General Convention will open the doors of the Episcopal Church to thousands of new people because it declares that we are an open and inclusive church.

One conservative leader has stated that ECUSA could lose 50 percent of its membership over the next few years.

But, I believe that the most interesting spin and potentially most dangerous for our community comes from the Chancellor of the National Church and represents the “official line” of 815. The chancellor is assuring Episcopal leaders that we have lost people before over the issue of prayer book revision and women’s ordination, but the denomination “recovered from this and went on.”

What are we to make of these comments and why do I think the Chancellor’s is the most dangerous? For many in the church, their position seems to be “Our minds are made up, don’t confuse us with the facts.” But, this is precisely what the leaders of our community need. They need to look at the facts and begin their discussion (hopefully not their “spin”) from this information. Let me also assure you that the data that I am using comes from the National Church’s own information. In other words, “I am not making this up!” Of course, I will be giving some interpretation especially in my final article, but I believe it would help all of us to begin with the same data.

So let’s begin with a 60-year look at two pieces of information. On the following graph, I have plotted the actual membership of ECUSA (the numbers representing millions of people) and the percentage of the U.S. population represented by these numbers. The top line is the actual number and the bottom line is the percentage.

These lines are based on every five years since 1930. They show that ECUSA was 1.6 percent of the U.S. population in 1930 and had 1.6 million members

Why did I start with 1930? Until 1930, the membership and percent of the U.S. population of ECUSA had been in a long and steady decline. Then in 1930, the trend reversed and we began to grow in both these areas.

In 1965, we reached our high point in this cycle when there were 3.6 million members (a 100 percent growth from 1930) and were then 1.9 percent of the U.S. population. It is very important to note that while the population had grown, membership in ECUSA grew faster than the population. This is a point that I will return to in my second article.

From 1965 until today, the membership of ECUSA and our percentage of the population have both been in decline. In fact, our percent of the U.S. population (what business people would call our “market share”) has fallen during this time faster than our membership.

These are very alarming numbers. Let me emphasis these:

* For the past 40 years, ECUSA has been in steady decline.

* Only the period immediately following the approval of the prayer book of 1979 and the vote in favor of the ordination of women – the last years 5 years of John Allen’s term as Presiding Bishop – showed any slow-down in this decline.

* Interestingly, the fastest decline of ECUSA came in the first five years of Edmond Browning’s administration.

* We also saw a slight slow-down in the decline in the first five years of Frank Griswold’s administration. However, the present crisis will return this decline to our historical trend and probably even lower.

Now you see why the extreme comments are unfounded. It is simple not true that ECUSA will gain members as a result of our actions. If we would, why would the dioceses that already embrace these position not be growing? They are demonstrably the fastest declining part of the Church!

We will not lose one million people over the next year. This should be closer to around 100,000. I am most concerned about how all this will effect the 840,000 members who regularly attend and give around 70% of our stewardship. It will be difficult to tell, however, because it will take us till 2006 to know what these numbers actually are since our church reporting information takes at least two years to post.

Why do I think the Chancellors comments are so dangerous? First, it is a purposeful attempt to distort our history to sell one side of our present polarization. It puts us in a very dangerous position. What is this position? Complacency or “All will be well!” As you can see, all has not been well in ECUSA for 40 years. This brings us to the second issue. The leadership of ECUSA on a national level is totally in denial and has lost any credible ability to tell the truth. No organization has a chance for revitalization when such denial is so wide spread among its leadership.

Think I am wrong about this denial? Think on this. As a member of the 2020 Taskforce, I can assure you that neither the House of Bishops, nor the Executive Council have ever looked at the information that is before you now. When we suggested that they do, we were told not to be “negative” because the Presiding Bishop did not want to portray our present situation in a negative light.

This leads me to two generalizations or interpretations that I am willing to state:

1. ECUSA has not been able to demonstrate a sustainable place in our society for the past 40 years. Put another way, when can we expect this decline to reverse itself? There is no reason to believe our present situation will do anything but accentuate the decline. Turning around is not on the horizon.

2. These numbers are a clear indication of ECUSA’s continuing failure. If these trends continue for just five more years, our status will be reduced to such fringe religious groups as Christian Scientists or Unitarians.

Today, more people believe that aliens have abducted them than are members of ECUSA. What is the difference between these two groups? The abduction people have growing numbers of believers and adherents. We do not.

END